Après quelques recherches, j'ai trouvé que les stocks de GPU des revendeurs se sont terminés autour du mois d'octobre 2020 en France avant que la pénurie soit déclarée et que les prix s'affolent.
Début 2021 on nous annonçait un retour à la normale en fin d'année mais ça n'a pas eu lieu. Depuis 1 an donc les maigres stocks de GPU sont vidés en 5 minutes dès qu'ils apparaissent, souvent pour être revendus derrière malheureusement.
Pensez-vous que la pénurie va se tasser en 2022, ou bien on est parti pour encore plusieurs années de galère ?
Salut,
La situation est un peu plus complexe, la demande est plus forte que la production, mais pas seulement parce qu'il y a beaucoup de gamers qui achètent, c'est parce que les cartes graphiques sont achetées en grand nombre par les "miners" et les "scalpers". Les premiers achètent par dizaines, voire centaines pour produire de la cryptomonnaie, quand les seconds achètent pour revendre à prix d'or (au double, voire triple du prix d'achat). Bien entendu, on ne met pas de côté la pénurie des composants qui complique la tâche et le fait que les lignes de productions soient à fond.
Pour ce qui est de la question, nVidia parle d'un retour à la normale vers fin 2022, d'autres analystes tablent plutôt sur 2023.
Tout ceci est à prendre avec des pincettes, car personne ne peut connaitre l'avenir 😉
Encore une longue année à patienter alors, perso je ne suis pas prêt à mettre 1000€ dans une CG.
En attendant je fais les dernier AAA en low/medium pas trop le choix.
Si le BTC s'effondre, il y aura alors une avalanche de cartes à vendre ça serait une aubaine à ne pas manquer 😄
Il n'y a pas que le minage malheureusement. Les fondeurs comme TSMC (qui fabrique pour AMD et nVidia entre autre) sont aussi les fabriquant de puce pour les constructeur automobile. Qui eux aussi ont des besoins énorme et subissent les pénuries.
Mais il y a aussi les consoles, même si la switch (nVidia) est à un niveau de gravure très ancien, les Xbox one et PS4/5 eux utilisent des million d' APU de chez AMD.
Et par dessus on rajoute les smartphones de plus en plus performant ayant aussi eux aussi des puces de chez TSMC ( SOC créés par Qualcomm avec ses Snapdragon ou Médiatek avec les Exynos et les Dimensity )
Et comme un malheur n'arrive jamais seul !
Pour faire une puce ( GPU, CPU, SOC, Chipset, mémoire ... ) il faut plusieurs choses :
Des concepteurs : AMD, nVidia, Intel, Qualcomm, Madiatek ...
Des fonderies : TSMC, Globalfoundry, Intel, Samsung ...
Des matières première ( Silicium, cuivre ... )
Des machine de lithographie qui vont réaliser les DIE dans lequel seront découpé les puces. Et les meilleurs sont européennes, c'est ASML en Allemagne qui développe les machines qui gravent les puces du monde dans les plus petites gravure et en EUV
Et bien le weekend dernier ... Gros incendie chez ASML et donc gros retards sur la livraison des machines de gravure. (Ce qui arrange bien les chinois qui s'efforce de concurrencer nos technologies ... )
Déjà c'est Clubic :D Donc à prendre avec des pincettes, des gants en latex et une combinaison anti-radiation :D
10% de prod en plus n'aura malheureusement aucun impact. La demande est au dessus de 100% en plus, voir même 200 / 300 % avant noël pour les PS5 et xbox serie S/X.
Il y a des usines de véhicules qui ont diminué leur rendement tant ils n'arrivent plus à se fournir.
Et pour nous, les gameurs, le probleme est tout autre. Les robots, les webbots, spam les boutique en ligne pour acheter en masse et revendre plus cher. Puis les mineurs de BTC ou ETH profitent d'un marché gris parallèle. Les mec se font livrer les cartes par palettes ... puisqu'ils achètent, via des intermédiaire, directement sortie d'usine en chine.
Et quand bien même une boutique genre LDLC ou autre arrive à avoir du stock, elle ne baisse pas le prix à l'unité et réserve la majeur partie du stock aux client qui achètent des config complète.
Le seul espoirs réside dans le fait que des pays commencent à interdire le minage. Mais c'est un long processus ...
@Neltariane pas mieux que @ramax , perso j'attends les nouvelles gen CPU/CG/Ram/Pcie, et vu les tarifs je prendrai surement une tour montée sur un site Allemand qui semble être parmi les seul à proposer un combo prix/qualité/fiabilité correct. De tout façon je dois tout changer.
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Last updated 19th February 2021
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OursGarou
